Modeled conversions — Google's machine-learning estimate of conversions that the cookieless pings (sent when GCM v2 is denied) suggest are happening.
Without GCM v2:
- Visitor declines consent → no pings → Google sees zero from that user → audience signal lost.
With GCM v2 (denied state):
- Visitor declines consent → cookieless pings sent → Google's models estimate conversions and remarketing audiences → roughly 70–85% of the signal is preserved (varies by traffic mix).
This is why a banner that "blocks everything before consent" but doesn't implement GCM v2 costs you significantly more in lost ad performance than one that does. The right pattern is:
- Block third-party scripts (cookie storage compliance).
- Set GCM v2 to denied (signals intent).
- Update GCM v2 on consent (recovers full attribution).
See also: Consent Mode v2.